Global Trading Blog
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Dear Subscribers:Stocks and markets worldwide got hammered yesterday.This technically caused the "Market Monitor" to issue another sell signal and end the questionable buy signal we had gotten.As I have mentioned week after week, we are in a trading environment filled with land mines. Uncertainty and risk are high with the ongoing Macro slowdown across the globe plus the Europe fiscal and banking crisis. However it is not easy to just go short as central banks and politicians are obsessed with monetary easing and bailouts that cause violente "rip your face rallies". It is a market for only the extremely quick where profits ... -
Dear Subscribers:Yesterday we got a sharp upside reversal during the afternoon. The S&P 500 managed to close over its 150 day moving average and close positive.This technical action is positive and high volatility is to be expected as bottoms are formed.Just remember how crazy the market was during the August-November 2011 when the market bottomed.However, the Market Monitor is showing weak buying. The strong money is still not entering the market. We can interpret the current action as timid buying or short covering. When we get a very strong up day, with 800 or 1000 stocks being accumulated, that will be ... -
Dear Subscribers:After the last housing data was released, there has been a lot of bottom calling in real estate by some economists and pundits in the financial media.Let's take a look at the housing economic series & stock market ETF's with technical analysis and see if we can support the housing bottom call. Housing has been the weakest sector in the economic recovery and if it starts to trend up it will surely help boost the current anemic GDP growth. Building Permits:This series seems to have bottomed. We have a clear double bottom pattern & the 6 month moving average ... -
Dear Subscribers:I good blog from a very good trader, Darrin Donnelly, from the Darvas Trader website. How to Eliminate Trader Stress by Darrin Donnelly on April 5, 2012 How to Eliminate Trader Stress Trader. Stress. The two words have become forever linked to each other, largely due to the stereotypical image of what a trader is and how a trader acts. You know the stereotype. The 20-something testosterone-fueled Alpha Male who sucks down a Red Bull every 15 minutes and lives off adrenaline. His days are spent maniacally screaming and bullying his way through Wall Street trading rooms while his ... -
Dear Subscribers:Yesterday the market popped to new yearly highs thanks to a better than expected ISM Manufacturing PMI.The move to new highs wasn't extremely powerful as the previous ones @ 1419 in the S&P 500 were barely breached. Volume was below average which hints a lack of conviction and participation of institutional buyers. The Russell 2000 via the IWM is trying to break out once again but with average volume and with a limited price move. The IWM needs to hold this level or probably we will fail and have a deeper correction from this breakout attempt. Macro data today ... -
Dear Subscribers:Mixed macro data was released today to end a week of dissapointing economic releases. Personal Spending jumped today over expectations but personal saving declined.From Calculated Risk: This was a sharp increase in spending in February (and January spending was revised up). Using the two-month method, it appears real PCE will increase around 2.0% in Q1 (PCE is the largest component of GDP); the mid-month method suggests an increase closer to 2.9%. Chicago PMI had a slightly missed expectations but market its fifth month over 60 which is positive. UOM Consumer Sentiment was revised higher to 76.2, breaking out of ... -
Dear Subscribers:Markets open slightly weaker today around the globe concerned on a large trade deficit posted by China of $31.5 billion. Emerging markets, commodities, silver and gold stocks are hit the most by this announcement.Last week we had a positive bullish reversal on most major markets. While the price action was bullish, volume was lacking.We are still observing some technical deterioration and momentum starting to wane which are risks that need to be considered.Bullish setups should be taken but with more caution and lowering the position size.A breakout of the S&P 500 to new highs with good volume would remove this ... -
Dear Subscribers: The market uptrend has remained in place and indices have kept creeping higher despite overbought conditions and technical divergences.Here I will highlight some of the negative aspects that other analysts and myself have noticed in the major market averages which suggest that a meaningful pullback is near. The Russell 2000 is one of the major indices is not confirming the new highs reached yesterday in the Dow Jones Industrials or the S&P 500. We can also see how its RSI is pulling back. If you are a student of the "Dow Theory" it will be evident that the ... -
Dear Subscribers:Markets reversed yesterday on higher in most major indexes. This is a distribution day in were big institutions were most likely sellers.One day reversals are not accurate predictors of market direction but yesterday's action was bearish and could be the start of something bigger. This was more evident or dramatic in the NASDAQ 100 in which Apple weights 20% of the index. The sharp reversal of Apple in high volume translated into an ugly reversal in the NASDAQ 100 Index. Today we are getting a bounce back to 1350 resistance reversing the losses from the futures market due to ... -
Dear Subscribers:Market has difficulty to continue its advance and reverses the small gains it had achieved near the open.As we have mentioned during the last couple of weeks, the market is overbought and focusing in profit taking rather than buying should be the norm.Despite the FED's bullish FOMC statament, with low rates at least until the end of 2014,the market is struggling to move higher and it seems other market participants are profit taking into the good news. A variety on sentiment gauges are suggesting that an important pull back is due.The % of assets of leveraged traders in money ... -
Today before the market open I did this interview /presentation with Mike Swanson of Wall street window about the my outlook for the markets and the economy.Click here to see the presentation.Best regards, Victor Riesco -
Yesterday's early weakness was erased with a strong afternoon rally that led world markets to close near their highs.As mentioned in yesterday's update, the market uptrend remains in place but is pressured by some short term overbought conditions and all the political and macro distorsion coming out from Europe.Markets remain sensible to headlines related to Europe. This creates a choppy and volatile trading environment.Today, the market started the american session with strength after selling off and then bouncing during the futures markets.This strength however was erased when Italy approves the budget put forward by prime minister Silvio Berlusconi was approved ... -
The market uptrend that started in early October, after the markets reached a deeply oversold condition, continues into November despite a complicated political and fiscal situation in Europe and with the US economy facing sluggish growth & double dip recession fears.Developed economies are striving to "kick the can" as much as they can to avoid a massive develeraging that would stunt growth and raise unemployment for a long time. As I highlighted last week, the powerful bounce that lead to a historic rally in October made most world markets reach extreme short term overbought conditions. Last week almost 90% of ... -
Since the end of July the stock market has been very weak. We've had a couple of days in which markets fell over 6% and various in which we had 3%+ losses.After the deep sell off in August, the S&P 500 traded on a very volatile range between 1220 and 1120.The market broke down from its 1120 support and things were looking pretty grim. However yesterday during the last hour of trading the market had a sharp reversal on European news and recovered this level.I personally think that the market will start a powerful move either to the downside or ... -
Dear Subscribers: On monday the markets started the week in a deeply oversold condition. We have seen some bounces that have moments turned into strong rallies but the breadth and leadership has been very weak. The majority of stocks that have lead the market uptrend have not been participating and many of them have sold off this week. The most oversold assets that had made new lows have been bouncing. Silver, copper, china and emerging markets have staged bounces but these assets have been the laggards and not the leaders. The weak leadership in the rallies makes me think we will probably get another ... -
Dear Subscribers: Yesterday Wall Street closed with a second consecutive day of gains that got halted at it highs twice when the S&P 500 hit its 20 day moving average that is acting as short term resistance. Volatility has persisted during the Asian & European session with the S&P futures at one point being off more than 1% and now before the market open they are open near 1% to the upside. Today's important macro data release, Retail Sales, dissapoints with a flat number (0%) while an increase of 0.2% was expected. Note that retail sales, at least in nominal terms, are ...
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I’M VICTOR RIESCO
I’m a financial analyst and professional investor from Santiago, Chile. I’m the owner of Global Trader, a brokerage and trading .
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