Global Trading Blog
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Dear Subscribers:The bullish reversal from the lows in the market that we saw yesterday extends into more gains today after a round of bullish macro data. The ADP Non Farm Employment & ISM Non Manufacturing PMI beat expectations. However they still show bearish charts which show that the economy isn't strong. The S&P 500 is still under the short term downtrend that has been acting as resistance. Momentum is also trending downward. Look for a breakout over these trendlines for a new phase of the rally to occur. Overall things look bullish technically and the market has just pulled back ... -
Dear Subscribers:Today the market received some pretty dissapointing macro data that only confirm that the economy is weak, which shouldn't be a surprise. Especially dismal were the numbers of Core Durable Goods. The Final GDP for the second quarter was revised downwards with an anemic 1.3%. However a weak economy is old news and the market focus was set in Spain as the government would approve and release the budget for 2013.Budget cuts were approved and tax hikes were avoided. The market reaction was favorable as this increases the odds that the ECB will print Euros and shore the spanish ... -
Dear Subscribers:Today we had a very macro intesive day but data was in general better than expected.CB Consumer confidence and Richmond Manufactoring Index beated estimates by a wide margin. The S&P Home Price index continues to edge up, this month reaching a positive reading year to date. Home prices have increased this year and thus the housing bottom looks more solid month by month.As noted above, the CB Consumer index posted a much better than expected reading and edged upwards substantially. Overall the economy has been improving a bit and the odds of a recession have been lowered this year. ... -
Dear Subscribers:The market continues to act bullish and breadth has improved worldwide as many different markets or assets are breaking out / setting up bullishly.As I mentioned in the last update, the market is a bit overbought short term so we might consolidate or pullback a bit here but overall, longer term momentum seems to be building into equities as the "risk on" trade is on.We should continue to see the Nasdaq Composite or the Russell 2000 outperfom the S&P 500 or Dow Jones industrials to mantain the bullish tone. The macro calendar for this week has some important releases. ... -
Dear Subscribers:The market had a bullish reaction to yesterday's announcement by the ECB in which it affirmed that it will renew bond purchases of PIIG countries in order to control and lower their interest rates.The only condition for this to occur is that the alleged PIIGS countries must ask for a bailout and follow the austerity standards set by the EU.Now its up to the bigger PIIGS, Italy & Spain to formally ask for a bailout and thus allow the ECB to print Euros to shore up their debt. The S&P 500 broke out to new 4 year highs as ... -
Dear Subscribers:On Friday the market recovered most of Thursday's losses. Ben Bernanke didn't commit to an specific date to launch a new QE program but he left clear that it is in the table and the FED will probably act sooner rather than later.The S&P 500 and other major indices are still trapped in the consolidation area of the last couple weeks, just beneath the old yearly highs.There is still no resolution but we saw a bunch of accumulation days on most major indices, that is, that institutional buyers were buying in volume which is positive. What really moved and broke ... -
Dear Subscribers:An ugly day in the stock market today as investors turn to risk off mode before the much awaited "Jackson Hole" conference.The market is expecting that some new monetary stimulus will be announced in this conference and some profit taking might be occuring in case Bernanke dissapoints.Most markets are negative and our stock watchlist is also in a sea of red, something we haven't seen a while.Technically things are not looking pretty as the S&P 500 looses its 20 day moving average and the 1400 level. Concerns over Europe is touted as the culprit but there isn't much in ... -
Dear Subscribers:The market mantains its choppy behavior. There aren't strong trends and the movements are news driven.The market internals show confusion, with most indicators neutral or mixed.On Wednesday the FED dissapointed as it didn´t announce QE. On Thursday the ECB central bank dissapointed as it didn´t announce new agressive monetary measures to stem the Euro crisis.This has caused the market to fall consecutively for four days this week and once again chop and stop all the traders that bought the rally. The maket has logged some distribution days and today the Nasdaq Composite falls below its 150 day moving average. It ... -
Dear Subscribers:Today the markets were up in decent volume and breadth improved.This technically means that the trend is getting stronger and "should" be more stable going forward. The S&P 500 crossed over its 50 day moving average but did not get another accumulation day. The breadth and participation of the "strong hands" is improving but note that the market has reachend and overbought condition. If you look at another momentum indicators such as the McClellan Oscillator you will see that short term we are extremely overbought. The market is putting very high hopes on a new Quantitative Easing or some ... -
Dear Subscribers:After Friday's rally, the market triggered a new technical uptrend.The Nasdaq Composite had a second accumulation day after the the low established the 6th of June which indicates that some buying pressure is entering the market and a new uptrend is emerging. We didn't have confirmation from the S&P 500 with another accumulation day. Also the Nasdaq Composite and other indices will be facing stiff resistance of important technical levels and the 50 day moving average. The buying pressure, looking at the internals through the market monitor, is still weak and thus the strong hands are not buying agressively ... -
Dear Subscribers:In an almost copy-paste FOMC Statement from previous months, where the FED sees still a weak recovery and high risks due the situation in Europe, low rates until at least late 2014 were assured for the market.This was interpreted by most market participants as a form of QE 2.5. The market reverses its losses and the EUR/USD which was down for the day spikes higher and challenges its 50 day moving average.Breaching this resistance will probably accelerate the short covering rally that is occuring in this currency pair. The S&P 500 is overbought but has been consolidating in a very ... -
Here we are again. Back into major resistance levels from which the overall market has failed to break out and move higher since the October bottom.We got a strong participation up day last Tuesday, which technically can be interpreted as a buy signal, but we need to see stronger confirmation with a solid breakout over resistance in the major indexes to see if this is finally for real.The S&P 500 is hitting its 200 day moving average today, a level it has headbanged and failed constantly. For a new, longer duration uptrend to start in the markets we need to ... -
Dear Subscribers:GLD is forming a Cup & Handle pattern that has bullish implications.It has once again succesfully tested and bounced from its 150 day moving average.The pattern has a break out point at 175.50. This trade is still supported by loose monetary policy by the main central banks of the world.Today we saw how central banks intervened to add liquidity and lower lending costs for European banks in US Dollars.If a new QE is launched by the FED or the European Central Bank, GLD will a have a powerful tailwind to keep on rising. Best regards, ... -
Today before the market open I did this interview /presentation with Mike Swanson of Wall street window about the my outlook for the markets and the economy.Click here to see the presentation.Best regards, Victor Riesco -
Dear Subscribers:Risk off trade started in Asia with banks and brokers leading the downside.In Europe trading is mixed with some indexes are positive and others negative. However most of them are higher than during the beginning of the Euro session as yields of the bonds from Italy and Spain drop.There is still no agreement, but there is serious talk about implementing a Quantitative Easing program by European Central Bank. This program would monetize the debt of the PIIGS countries and lower their yields and allow them to finance their spending by weakening the Euro. This liquidity injection would be bullish for ... -
Dear Subscribers: News from Europe and Macro data worst than expected try to spoil the "bulls" party. The expected and definite plan to "bailout Europe" that was supposed to be released tomorrow has been postponed until next Sunday. It appears that an agreement is basically done between the European leaders but some details need to be ironed out and this is taking longer than expected. This puts some downward pressure on the markets that dislike uncertainty. It is also being rumored that the Europeans will start their own "Quantitative Easing" program in order to "finance" the huge debt problems the PIIGS countries are facing. ... -
Dear Subscribers: Today the S&P 500 breaks out over the range that it has been during the last two months and a half. The market reach 1236 points, its highest level since August 4, 2011 The next target for the S&P 500 is 1260 points, March and June support from where the market bounced. What drives optimism today in the markets are two rumors: Ben Bernanke gathered with some senators to discuss the posibility of a new montery stimulus to bolster the weak economy. The FED wants to monetize mortgage backed securities, something that was done during the first QE during 2009 and ... -
Since the end of July the stock market has been very weak. We've had a couple of days in which markets fell over 6% and various in which we had 3%+ losses.After the deep sell off in August, the S&P 500 traded on a very volatile range between 1220 and 1120.The market broke down from its 1120 support and things were looking pretty grim. However yesterday during the last hour of trading the market had a sharp reversal on European news and recovered this level.I personally think that the market will start a powerful move either to the downside or ... -
Dear Subscribers: Markets are relatively flat and volatile today awaiting for the FOMC statement regarding monetary policy in the US. The market expects the FED to "do something" this time like monetizing more treasuries, changing the duration of the assets purchased or cut the interest rate in bank reserves in order to stimulate lending to business and consumers and thus reactivate economic growth. Today also the Central Bank of the UK announced that it will probably start their own QE2 program in October. I think we are about to enter a period of massive QE by all major central banks since developed economies ... -
Dear Subscribers: Yesterday the markets begun the week with a lot weakness with the S&P 500 futures openining 15 points down and with the market falling about 2% before rallying in the afternoon and recovering most of the losses. Today we see a continuation of the rally that started yesterday in the afternoon making the S&P 500 hit the previous highs at 1220 from the end of August. Also at these level the 50 day moving average is trading so I expect some resistance at these levels, especially with the FOMC meeting tomorrow. Traders are expecting a new round of monetary ... -
Dear Subscribers: The day begins with lots of volatility in the markets with the speculation of a possible yet improbable announcement of QE3 from Ben Bernanke in the Jackson Hole conference. The macro data released today is once again, dissapointing. Preliminary GDP has a reading of only 1% while revised UOM Consumer Sentiment is also under expectations with a reading of 55.7. Over 90% of macro data has been dissapointing during the last months. At 10:00 AM Bernanke ratified that there will be no more QE3 for the moment but the FED will consider further measures in September's FOMC meeting. He once again ... -
Dear Subscribers: Tomorrow FED president, Ben Bernanke, is going to deliver a speech at 10:00 AM at the Jackson Hole conference. Many expect that he announces a new monetary stimulus due to the weakness in economic growth, housing sector and the downdraft in stocks. Macro data continues to dissapoint, today with the Unemployment Claims coming out with a reading of 417K over the 403K that were expected. The truth is that there is really no reason for the FED to engage in further monetary stimulus other than to "finance" the US fiscal deficit by devaluing the dollar. There is a big difference today ... -
Dear Subscribers: Market is finding difficulty in breaching resistance at 1200 in the S&P 500, level from which the market crash of last monday started. This is a pretty obvious level from which short sellers can re-enter the market and bull who bought at the lows to cover their positions. At the moment, the sell volume is low and the news from Europe have been less negative which is a positive. The market was fairly positive for a while but it reversed hard after Standard & Poors lowers its growth forecast for the US economy for the next three years. It ... -
Dear Subscribers:Asian and European stocks start the week to the downside due to the failure by the US congress to reach an agreement regarding to raise the public debt limit that currently reaches 14 Trillion.S&P 500 futures fall up to 14 points before starting to bounce during the american trading session. Gold rallies 16 dollars to reach a new high at 1616.Now at the american session we see that the S&P 500 moderates its losses, falling 0.6% at the moment.However, we see that leading industry groups and stocks are holding on without showing much damage.This makes me think that today´s ... -
Dear Subscribers: Markets say good bye to the second round of "Quantitative Easing" with a rally that continues this week's bull run. The Nasdaq, Dow Jones Industrials and S&P 500 all have gains of roughly 1% and reach their 50 day Moving average which should offer resistance. Today's rally was boosted with a much better than expected "Chicago PMI". This is the first reading regarding industrial production, in quite a while, that comes better than forecasted. The market had been hit with 6 consecutive down weeks and 90% of economic data has been worst than expected. A better reading on an important data ... -
Dear Subscribers:A new blog I wrote for www.moneynews.com regarding higher interest rates with the end of QE 2 in just a couple of days.You can read the blog by clicking here.Best Regards, Victor Riesco -
Dear Subscribers: We begin a new week in which I expect it to be positive for the markets after 6 weeks of consecutive downside for american indices. Despite various short term positives that should have generated at least a short term rebound, markets fell last week everyday except for Thursday. Important levels of support and favorable historical stats have not stopped sellers from dragging the market lower. Last week it seemed the market would never bottom and that traditional oversold and bottom seeking tools were just not working. You must know that the intensity of the selling has been the strongest in ... -
Billionaire Jim Rogers gives his opinion on US Debt and Interest Rates.Rogers Expects:- Higher Interest Rates going Forward- Countries Buying less or no US Debt- US Debt Crisis will cause global unrest- QE3 will happen One of my favorite "Position Trades" going forward is "long TBT".With the end of QE2 at the end of the month, the treasury market will lose the FED as a buyer that has purchased 36% of all the debt emitted since QE1 started in March 2009.With a projected fiscal deficit of 1.5 Trillion this year, by the laws of supply and demand, leaving everything else constant, ... -
Last week we had some very negative action for the american indices. Until Tuesday, it seemed that the oversold bounce of the previous week was going to continue with a very strong technical close. However, it seems that the cotinued negative surprises were too much for the market and the next three days of downside erased all gains and dropped the S&P 500 to the 1300 support zone.Despite the strong sell pressure in the american indices, emerging markets, commodities and gold were firm. Something that caught my attention is that despite the sell off, the dollar index had losses ... -
This is an in depth analysis of the effects of Quantitative Easing in the economy and asset markets plus what will happen once the FED stops using this monetary tool in June 30th, 2011. This article was published in Gurufocus.com and received great ratings and was selected as "Editor's Pick". Read the article here: The Effects of Quantitative Easing
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I’M VICTOR RIESCO
I’m a financial analyst and professional investor from Santiago, Chile. I’m the owner of Global Trader, a brokerage and trading .
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