Global Trading Blog
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Dear Subscribers:I'm back from vacations. I needed some time off to re-energize and re-focus.In respect to the market, it remained consolidating at the May highs until last Thursday when it broke out and made a move to test & break the yearly highs.However sellers quickly appeared from the overbought conditions and rejected the market from those levels.We have now pulled back once again to the May highs and we have to see if the pullback will continue or the market will launch another up move from here. The move to the new highs has been narrow in breadth. The up ... -
Dear Subscribers:For the moment we are seeing a change of character in the market compared to other times it got short term overbought during the previous months.Instead of selling off sharply and reversing most of the advance, the market is consolidating in low volume near the highs.The internals have shown a slight bias towards buying, with no strong selling pressure.It would be healthy for the market to drift sideways for one more week or so in order to relieve the overbought conditions we reached last Tuesday and more setups to appear. Something that might be hinting for a negative development ... -
Dear Subscribers:The market mantains its choppy behavior. There aren't strong trends and the movements are news driven.The market internals show confusion, with most indicators neutral or mixed.On Wednesday the FED dissapointed as it didn´t announce QE. On Thursday the ECB central bank dissapointed as it didn´t announce new agressive monetary measures to stem the Euro crisis.This has caused the market to fall consecutively for four days this week and once again chop and stop all the traders that bought the rally. The maket has logged some distribution days and today the Nasdaq Composite falls below its 150 day moving average. It ... -
Dear Subscribers:The market continues to rally from the lows with a buy the dip mentality that we started to observe since the end of last week.The advance has been concentrated this week in technolgy stocks while other indexes have lagged. The strong hands have not been strong buyers, but the market monitor remains in a general uptrend. Yesterday we also got an accumulation day in the NASDAQ 100 which is a positive.I would like to see a broader advance in which the Russell 2000 or NYSE lead the charge. It is concerning that up thrust breadth is narrowing. Macro data has been ... -
Dear Subscribers:We are ending a choppy week in which the market had 6 consecutive down days but with very volatile action that with a lot of reversals from the lows. Despite all the movement, the market is ending the week flat. The market internals have deteriorated substantially and the uptrend is under pressure, however today's action is more positive with a big rally from support.Yesterday the market closed the gap from the big June 29th rally, broke support and then reversed. I see this as bullish as longs get more discouraged and stopped out ( adding fuel for a positive move ... -
Dear Subscribers:I know that I have been repetitive about the weak Macro issue and the high probability of the US entering recession but yesterday we saw a clear example of why I have been so insistent on this subject.The new technical uptrend got hammered after a string of Macro misses from the US economy. Adding insult to injury, Moody's downgraded a series of spanish banks that added power to the sell off. The Philly FED Manufactoring Index was the most disturbing, entering firmly into negative territory which indicates economic contraction. The only positive surprise was the CB Leading Index which ... -
Dear Subscribers:Today the markets were up in decent volume and breadth improved.This technically means that the trend is getting stronger and "should" be more stable going forward. The S&P 500 crossed over its 50 day moving average but did not get another accumulation day. The breadth and participation of the "strong hands" is improving but note that the market has reachend and overbought condition. If you look at another momentum indicators such as the McClellan Oscillator you will see that short term we are extremely overbought. The market is putting very high hopes on a new Quantitative Easing or some ... -
Dear Subscribers:Today was a good example of how being systematic and having the discipline to follow your model is critical to have a chance of success in investing / trading.In the current market environment, filled with rumors, bailouts, monetary intervention and banking fraud it is even more important.I wrote last night on how silly this "Spanish Bailout" was and how it opened the door for more problems as other PIIGS will probably revolt to get a similar deal as the one handed to Spain.Also there are elections occuring in Greece this weekend and the party that opposes to the European ... -
Dear Subscribers:Yesterday the market was smacked was selling on higher volume and technically the downtrend seems to have resumed.The weak buying spurts since the May 18th oversold signal showed us that there wasn't strong buying behind the move and that the market was vulnerable.Yesterday we got a sell off that had mild sellers but the ratio between buyers and sellers was extremely bearish. Take a look at the market monitor to glance at the internals: Technically we have breached the 150 day moving average and it looks like the October 2011 highs & 200 day moving average are a probable target ... -
Dear Subscribers:Today the market was unable to rebound from the Oversold signal of the Market Monitor.There was a feeble attempt to rally on some better than expected macro data but the situation in Europe (Greece) got the most out of investors and the market sold off in the afternoon.EUR/USD has been very weak which helps drag down the market.I think we have one more day of selling left, in which panicky sellers appear, before a short term tradable bottom occurs.Selling pressure has increased during the last couple of days but with still need to see the market "vomit" everything in ... -
Dear Subscribers:Another day of dull market action. Sellers are controlling the action but they haven't made a poweful move.Breadth is almost balanced between Accumulation & Distribution.For the market to really break down, we need to see selling with more conviction and volume.The Market Monitor reached a 90% oversold condition intraday and staged a bounce, just like the other two previous days. It ended the day with an 82% oversold reading which is a bit below an extreme oversold (starts at 85%). It is holding support from March lows and thus we could see a rebound from here.However, it is very ...
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I’M VICTOR RIESCO
I’m a financial analyst and professional investor from Santiago, Chile. I’m the owner of Global Trader, a brokerage and trading .
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