Global Trading Blog
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Dear Subscribers:Yesterday we got a new high, supported with volume, in some of the major US Indices.After the sharp and fast correction early last week, the market has erased some of the technical dangers with this powerful new high that shows accumulation.The S&P 500 managed to close over 1,380, the Dow Industrials over 13,000 and Nasdaq Composite over 3000. All of this is positive and bullish.The new highs in the market were powered by a lot of breakouts in leading quality stocks.If you check this week's watchlist you will see that great number of the stocks broke out and exploded ... -
Dear Subscribers:In an almost copy-paste FOMC Statement from previous months, where the FED sees still a weak recovery and high risks due the situation in Europe, low rates until at least late 2014 were assured for the market.This was interpreted by most market participants as a form of QE 2.5. The market reverses its losses and the EUR/USD which was down for the day spikes higher and challenges its 50 day moving average.Breaching this resistance will probably accelerate the short covering rally that is occuring in this currency pair. The S&P 500 is overbought but has been consolidating in a very ... -
Markets rally around the world with all of the Market Monitor positive except for UNG which makes new lows.Optimism hits the market after Italian senate approves the austerity measures.This causes the Italian 10 Year Bond Yield to spike lower under 7% which was the critical level that the market was observing. Despite the market being held "hostage" to headlines from Europe that have caused high volatility with sharp sell-offs and meltups, technically the uptrend remains in place and important support levels have held despite the losses in the indexes. In order for this rally to have real legs and start a ... -
Dear Subscribers:A rough awakening for american markets occurs this morning after yesterday's promising close on most indexes, which reversed losses and ended positive and near the highs in most world markets. Overnight the clearing firm LCH decides to raise the margin for italian bonds and this creates fear in the financial markets, sending the Italian 10-Year Bond yield over 7% (very near the crisis level of 8%) and the EUR/USD dropping over 200 pips which is about -1.6%. The S&P 500 index has been trading with a very strong negative correlation with the Dollar Index and especially the EUR/USD and ... -
Dear Subscribers: Markets are relatively flat and volatile today awaiting for the FOMC statement regarding monetary policy in the US. The market expects the FED to "do something" this time like monetizing more treasuries, changing the duration of the assets purchased or cut the interest rate in bank reserves in order to stimulate lending to business and consumers and thus reactivate economic growth. Today also the Central Bank of the UK announced that it will probably start their own QE2 program in October. I think we are about to enter a period of massive QE by all major central banks since developed economies ... -
Dear Subscribers: As it is "usual" during the last months, macro data released today dissapoints. Non Farm Payrolls comes weay below expectations and everything starts to indicate that the US is entering another recession. Abscent from fiscal stimulus because the government is cutting spending, the US economy stopped growing and shifted into reverse rapidly. With today´s data and other we have received this week, such as the ISM Manufactoring PMI that showed contraction in production, it is almost certain that the FED will launch a new monetary stimulus plan or QE 3 in the September FOMC meeting. With this they will ... -
Dear Subscribers: Tomorrow FED president, Ben Bernanke, is going to deliver a speech at 10:00 AM at the Jackson Hole conference. Many expect that he announces a new monetary stimulus due to the weakness in economic growth, housing sector and the downdraft in stocks. Macro data continues to dissapoint, today with the Unemployment Claims coming out with a reading of 417K over the 403K that were expected. The truth is that there is really no reason for the FED to engage in further monetary stimulus other than to "finance" the US fiscal deficit by devaluing the dollar. There is a big difference today ... -
Dear Subscribers:Fear takes grip of the markets, investors and traders are literally selling everything today except the dollar which is bouncing after weeks of getting hammered. Congress hasn´t been able to reach an agreement on the budget in order to raise the debt ceiling and the probability of default is making the market nervous. However, as I have said in previous updates, the US government will lift its debt ceiling and will continue to increase its public debt to keep a high fiscal deficit and spending. It will continue doing so until the market forces it to stop with higher ... -
Dear Subscribers:Asian and European stocks start the week to the downside due to the failure by the US congress to reach an agreement regarding to raise the public debt limit that currently reaches 14 Trillion.S&P 500 futures fall up to 14 points before starting to bounce during the american trading session. Gold rallies 16 dollars to reach a new high at 1616.Now at the american session we see that the S&P 500 moderates its losses, falling 0.6% at the moment.However, we see that leading industry groups and stocks are holding on without showing much damage.This makes me think that today´s ... -
Dear Subscribers:Markets rebounded with force from the support and moving average confluence zone near 1300 in the S&P 500. Despite persistant bad news coming out from Europe and from the US, markets contain pessimism and make the Bears run for the exists yesterday seeing that there was no follow through to the downside and Apple reported after the market closed. Today we have see some consolidation after yesterday's strong move up, but most markets around the world are positive. 73% of the Market Monitor has gained. TBT, GDX and SLV are the leaders. The american trading session started with ... -
Dear Subscribers: Today the markets are set begin the week to the downside after the asian session ends negative and the european bourses are deep in red.In europe, investors are worriend about Italy's fiscal debt situation. The country has over 1.5 Trillion Euros in public debt which amounts to 119% of GDP. During the next weeks and months, Italy has to roll over a large amount of debt to finance government spending and honor interest and principal payments. Italian bond yields spiked friday and also today, putting stress on Italy's ability to finace itself and pay back debt interest and debt ... -
Dear Subscribers: Markets say good bye to the second round of "Quantitative Easing" with a rally that continues this week's bull run. The Nasdaq, Dow Jones Industrials and S&P 500 all have gains of roughly 1% and reach their 50 day Moving average which should offer resistance. Today's rally was boosted with a much better than expected "Chicago PMI". This is the first reading regarding industrial production, in quite a while, that comes better than forecasted. The market had been hit with 6 consecutive down weeks and 90% of economic data has been worst than expected. A better reading on an important data ... -
Dear Subscribers:A new blog I wrote for www.moneynews.com regarding higher interest rates with the end of QE 2 in just a couple of days.You can read the blog by clicking here.Best Regards, Victor Riesco -
Dear Subscribers:Our positions on TBT and MSFT were entered on strictly fundamental criteria.TBT (which shorts long term treasury bonds) is a good fundamental trades as yields are near historic lows thanks to the FED´s "Quantitative Easing" program. The FED has bought aproximately 36% of all debt emitted by the treasury since March 2009. By being such a strong buyer of treasuries, yields have been able to remain low even though the supply of debt has dramatically increased. However, at the end of June quantitative easing ends and the buyer of over a third of treasuries will be gone. I expect ... -
Dear Subscribers: Today the market was weak despite its general oversold condition. For a moment we saw new lows but then some buying interest appeared and managed to close the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrials barely positive. Beneath the surface there was deep selling, with the S&P 500 Cumulative Tick Intraday closing on -8196, the second most negative reading in 10 years. In a sense this could be interpreted as a positive as intense selling pressure could not manage to drop the market lower. During the asian session, inflation data from China comes in line with expectations rising 5.5% during ... -
Billionaire Jim Rogers gives his opinion on US Debt and Interest Rates.Rogers Expects:- Higher Interest Rates going Forward- Countries Buying less or no US Debt- US Debt Crisis will cause global unrest- QE3 will happen One of my favorite "Position Trades" going forward is "long TBT".With the end of QE2 at the end of the month, the treasury market will lose the FED as a buyer that has purchased 36% of all the debt emitted since QE1 started in March 2009.With a projected fiscal deficit of 1.5 Trillion this year, by the laws of supply and demand, leaving everything else constant, ... -
This is an in depth analysis of the effects of Quantitative Easing in the economy and asset markets plus what will happen once the FED stops using this monetary tool in June 30th, 2011. This article was published in Gurufocus.com and received great ratings and was selected as "Editor's Pick". Read the article here: The Effects of Quantitative Easing
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I’M VICTOR RIESCO
I’m a financial analyst and professional investor from Santiago, Chile. I’m the owner of Global Trader, a brokerage and trading .
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