Global Trading Blog
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Dear Subscribers:We are seeing some positive developments today.The S&P 500 has bounced from short term oversold conditions (as it should if it really is in an uptrend) and it has now broken to the upside the short term downtrend that has halted rally attempts as of late.This is a positive and it could be the start of new up stage for the markets.It would be ideal to see the market close near the highs of today and with accumulation, that is, high volume that hints that institutional investors are behind the move. A negative is that indices such as the ... -
Dear Subscribers:Challenging, volatile, news driven, choppy conditions continue to drive the market.After failing to make new highs the market tanked for 3 consecutive days.Yesterday it found some support at the 50 day moving average and today a sharp rally is ignited due to comments of the Mario Draghi, president of the European Central Bank.Draghi says he will do everything in his power to mantain the Euro, sparking a powerful short covering rally which is now starting to fade.Technically we are holding the 50 day MA and making a higher low, but due to the chop fest, this could hardly be ... -
Dear Subscribers:Doing some macro catch up today. Macro data has been in general better than expected during the last couple of days. These are valid fundamental excuses to buy the market from the current oversold levels which are being dampened by the Greek-Euro situation. We can see that the US economic surprise index has stabilized. Housing data has been better than expected and supports the idea that it has bottomed and recovery is gaining firm footing. Retail sales was the big dissapointment which came under expectations and last month was revised lower. Empire State Manufactoring Index also came in better ... -
Dear Subscribers:It seems that today we will have another follow through day with high volume in the market.A better than expected ISM Report lifts the S&P 500 to previous highs/resistance. Yesterday we saw action that we didn't wanted to see, as I highlighted in the previous update.The market fell a bit but in higher volume, creating a distribution day. This means that institutional investors were behind the selling and this is never good at the start of a new uptrend.Today we want to see the opposite action to give firmer footing to the rally: Big gains with higher volume.From the macro ... -
Today we had more macro beats than misses, something that hadn't occured in a long while. Home prices continue to sink to new "post-bubble" lows. The S&P/CS Composite Home price index fell 3.5% which was in line with expectations. Housing continues to be the weakest link in the US economy and I think that a new FED intervention, if it occurs, will be directed to "revive" this market. Richmond Fed Manufactoring Index beat expectations with a reading of 14. The survey showed that Manufacturing activity in the central Atlantic region advanced somewhat faster in April following slower growth in March. Looking ... -
Macro data for the day is out and it wasn't very encouraging.It dissapointed and we are starting to see a negative trend in the US macro data, with most releases coming below expecations. Home prices fell 3.8% to reach new post housing bubble lows. Richmond Manufactoring Index posted a big miss with a reading of 7 with expectations of 18. New orders and shipments dropped hard. CB Consumer Confidence came in a bit lower than expectations and is finding "resistance" near the February 2011 highs. My concern from macro data is not from today's releases but because a trend is ... -
Dear Subscribers:Today we get another weak opening in equities (3 in a row) as Existing Home Sales comes slightly under expectations and the market relieves some technical overbought conditions, allowing moving averages to catch up.However unlike yesterday, most leading stocks are acting well and showing strength.Many major indices are testing yesterday's lows at this moment or making new lows. However the leaders are strong and we are seeing good gains and new breakouts across the board.This is a positive divergence. But technial leaders are strong: The momentum run without corrections that we have witnessed has been remarkable and a rare ... -
Dear Subscribers: Macro data is out.Unemployment claims came out flat and were a non event. It missed expectations and has basically gone flat since October. ISM Manufactoring Index missed expectations with a reading 52.4 vs 54.6 that was expected. It was first decrease in this index after a 5 month streak of improvement.A reading over 50 indicates economic expansion. -
Dear Subscribers:Macro data for the day is out. Today we had lots of releases and 2 were worst than expected while two were better than concensus. Durable Goods had a huge miss on core and its normal reading. It was expected to decline on the tax expiration that allowed faster depreciation for equipment purchaes. However it fell a lot more than expected.In the other hand, home prices reach new post bubble lows with decline of 4%.Housing continues to be the weakest sector in the US economy. Employment, which was another laggard, has shown notable improvement during the last months.Home prices ... -
Dear Subscribers:The only important US Macro release for today missed expectations.Existing Home Sales came out with a reading of 4.57M vs 4.66M that was expected.Last month was revised downwards to 4.38M from 4.61M. According to the NAR sales rose in January while inventory fell:Total existing-home sales, which are completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, increased 4.3 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.57 million in January from a downwardly revised 4.38 million-unit pace in December and are 0.7 percent above a spike to 4.54 million in January 2011.Total housing inventory at the end of ... -
Dear Subscribers:Macro data in the US dissapointed in every single release today. The housing sector has been delivering some weak numbers as of late and except for the NAHB Sentiment index, most housing related data has been flat or declining after the post bubble lows.The Case-Shiller Home Price index drops 3.7% to new lows today. Just some minutes ago, the Chicago PMI and CB Consumer Confidence were released.Both of them dissapointed and were substantially lower than expected.The Chicago PMI came out with a reading of 61.1 vs 68.2. CB Consumer Confidence Index decreased this month and was much lower than expectations.Respondents ... -
Dear Subscribers:Macro data is out and it was mixed. Unemployment claims came in with a much better than expected reading of 352K vs 387K that was concensus.This is the lowest readings in unemployment claims since April 2008. In the other hand the Philly FED Manufactoring Index came below expectations of 10.7 with a reading of 7.3.The new orders index remained positive for the fourth consecutive month but declined from a revised reading of 10.7 in December to 6.9 this month.The six month outlook improved and the employment component also increased. -
Dear Subscribers:The first important macro release today comes out better than expected with the ISM Manufactoring Index increasing to 53.9 beating expectations of 53.3 for the month of December.Overall the report was very positive with manufactoring expanding at a faster rate, employment expanded, new orders were up and prices paid were down. Best regards, Victor Riesco -
Dear Subscribers:A new year is starting and a new plethora of macro releases are due this week.We have quite a few of important data points with the ISM Manufactoring PMI, ISM Non-Manufactoring PMI, ADP Non-Farm Payrolls and Non-Farm Payrolls. Best regards, Victor Riesco -
Dear Subscribers:US Macro data releases are done for the day wiith Housing Starts & Building Permits.Both were better than expected and continue to strengthen the trend of improving US Macro data. Most of the improvement in housing starts comes from multi-family homes while single family are moving sideways. Still we are seeing better conditions for housing after years of continued weakness after the bubble exploded. Best regards, Victor Riesco -
Dear Subscribers: A day with high volatility that had not been observed in a while is being experimented by the markets today. We are back to "political trading" that generates distorsions in the market and makes it hard to determine market direction. Today the European leaders are holding a conference to iron out the bailout plan for the debt ladden PIIGS countries. The market rallied before the start of the american session and optimism was founded on the approval of the German parliament to lever up the ESFS bailout fund. During the open of the american session the market "sold the news." The ... -
Dear Subscribers: News from Europe and Macro data worst than expected try to spoil the "bulls" party. The expected and definite plan to "bailout Europe" that was supposed to be released tomorrow has been postponed until next Sunday. It appears that an agreement is basically done between the European leaders but some details need to be ironed out and this is taking longer than expected. This puts some downward pressure on the markets that dislike uncertainty. It is also being rumored that the Europeans will start their own "Quantitative Easing" program in order to "finance" the huge debt problems the PIIGS countries are facing. ... -
Dear Subscribers: Today the S&P 500 breaks out over the range that it has been during the last two months and a half. The market reach 1236 points, its highest level since August 4, 2011 The next target for the S&P 500 is 1260 points, March and June support from where the market bounced. What drives optimism today in the markets are two rumors: Ben Bernanke gathered with some senators to discuss the posibility of a new montery stimulus to bolster the weak economy. The FED wants to monetize mortgage backed securities, something that was done during the first QE during 2009 and ... -
Dear Subscribers: I great deal of macro data was released today and the readings were mixed. At least this is an improvement since just some weaks ago macro data was dissapointing and dismal. Unemployment Claims come out with a reading of 403K which is not favorable for employment. The industrial production data from the Philly FED Manufactoring Index beat expectations by a wide margin. The reading of + 8.7 was much better than the -9.0 expected. The CB Leading Index, a leading indicator of economic growth comes out with a reading of 0.2% while 0.3% was expected. The economists that build ... -
Dear Subscribers: Yesterday the FED announces a new monetary intervention denominated by the market as "operation twist". Instead of printing more dollars to monetize treasuries or mortgage backed securities the FED will purchase 400 Billion of longer term treasuries and sell the same amount of short term securities in order to lower long term interest rates and lift shorter term rates. This intends to lower the cost of mortgages which are linked to longer term treasuries in an effort to revive the depressed housing market. An increased activity in the housing market would increase employment by hiring workers and boost economic activity. The ... -
Dear Subscribers: Markets are relatively flat and volatile today awaiting for the FOMC statement regarding monetary policy in the US. The market expects the FED to "do something" this time like monetizing more treasuries, changing the duration of the assets purchased or cut the interest rate in bank reserves in order to stimulate lending to business and consumers and thus reactivate economic growth. Today also the Central Bank of the UK announced that it will probably start their own QE2 program in October. I think we are about to enter a period of massive QE by all major central banks since developed economies ... -
Dear Subscribers: During the asian session stocks and the S&P 500 futures started to rebound after a positive Chinese PMI which was better than expected and reached a two month high. Later in the European session, futures reversed the gains to later rally once more during the american session where we obtained dissapointing macro data from New Home Sales and Richmond FED Manufactoring Index. New Home Sales get a reading of 298K while the Richmond Manufactoring Index is below the expectations of -7 with a reading of -10. Despite dismal macro data stocks are in "rebound mode" probably discounting a new ... -
This is an in depth analysis of the effects of Quantitative Easing in the economy and asset markets plus what will happen once the FED stops using this monetary tool in June 30th, 2011. This article was published in Gurufocus.com and received great ratings and was selected as "Editor's Pick". Read the article here: The Effects of Quantitative Easing
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I’M VICTOR RIESCO
I’m a financial analyst and professional investor from Santiago, Chile. I’m the owner of Global Trader, a brokerage and trading .
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