Global Trading Blog
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Dear Subscribers:For the moment we are seeing a change of character in the market compared to other times it got short term overbought during the previous months.Instead of selling off sharply and reversing most of the advance, the market is consolidating in low volume near the highs.The internals have shown a slight bias towards buying, with no strong selling pressure.It would be healthy for the market to drift sideways for one more week or so in order to relieve the overbought conditions we reached last Tuesday and more setups to appear. Something that might be hinting for a negative development ... -
Dear Subscribers:First let me apologize for not updating the site as frequently as I do this week.I was affected by a bad flu and wasn't feeling well, thus needed to take some time off.However, I have been monitoring the market closely.The chop fest market once again showed its dramatic nature on Friday as it did a sharp U-turn and erased four consecutive days of selling with big gains after a better than expected Non-Farm Payrolls report.Since then we have had two positive up days that has brought us back to the yearly highs and the S&P 500 over 1400.If the ... -
Dear Subscribers:Markets open slightly weaker today around the globe concerned on a large trade deficit posted by China of $31.5 billion. Emerging markets, commodities, silver and gold stocks are hit the most by this announcement.Last week we had a positive bullish reversal on most major markets. While the price action was bullish, volume was lacking.We are still observing some technical deterioration and momentum starting to wane which are risks that need to be considered.Bullish setups should be taken but with more caution and lowering the position size.A breakout of the S&P 500 to new highs with good volume would remove this ... -
Equity markets have been holding their highs or correctly slightly this week but much more interesting moves have been observed in the currency markets where a strong "risk on" trade has been in place.From a record net short position, EUR/USD has been ramping higher with a small hiccup in early February. Shorts are getting hammered and during the last couple of days, they have been running for the exits in despair as the up move has gone vertical. A lower USD traditionally helps equity markets, commodities and precious metals. We have seen the strong moves in Gold and Oil this ... -
Dear Subscribers:The tug of war between Bulls & Bears continues at the 1350 resistance in the S&P 500.There have been some attempts to breach this level during the pre market futures and during normal trading but bulls have lacked the power to break on through.However, we have seen some very good performance in leading stocks and mega leading stocks such as Apple. To get a real pullback we will need to see this stocks start to break down. Also a divergence is building between the EUR/USD and the market. Normally they move in sync but since last Friday the EURO ... -
Dear Subcribers:Buyers continue to appear in the small dips the market is giving.Weakness on Monday quickly faded and yesterday the market advanced slightly.We are hitting the 1350 resistance area which has proved to be a tough area for the market.2011 highs were achieved at these levels and it will be tougher for the market to continue to grind higher from here. A pretty steep trendline has been playing out since mid December. I would watch for a close on stronger volume below this trendline as a signal that the market will pullback with more sharply. Also the Dollar Index's momentum ... -
Dear Subscribers:In an almost copy-paste FOMC Statement from previous months, where the FED sees still a weak recovery and high risks due the situation in Europe, low rates until at least late 2014 were assured for the market.This was interpreted by most market participants as a form of QE 2.5. The market reverses its losses and the EUR/USD which was down for the day spikes higher and challenges its 50 day moving average.Breaching this resistance will probably accelerate the short covering rally that is occuring in this currency pair. The S&P 500 is overbought but has been consolidating in a very ... -
Dear Subscribers:Market continues to make new highs in a risk on day where every asset of the market monitor is positive.A supposed deal between Greece and its creditors supports European stocks and the Euro which lifts US stocks in the american session.The market is now overbought and making new stock purchases is riskier. My focus is now centered more in profit taking rather than buying.That being said, technically the market seems to be headed to the 1340-1350 area in the S&P 500, which were previous highs and should act as a magnet. The EUR/USD short cover is on its way. ... -
Dear Subscribers:Today the market gaps fueled by higher than expected growth in Chinese GDP. Emerging markets, commodities and Brazil lead the rally today on these news.Also today we got a positive Spanish bond auction. The market has completely ignored the S&P downgrades on France, Austria and the ESFS bailout fund. I think is a positive that the market stops paying attention to this rating agencies which have shown during the last 5 years or so to be most of the time wrong and late in ther risk classifications. The market has given up a big part of its gap up ... -
Dear Subscribers:Markets sell off today, something that hadn't occured in a while.Europe comes back as the culprit after a time in which it "didn´t matter".Before the open the market begun to sell off on rumors that S&P wias downgrading some European countries. This rumor is now confirmed with Austria and France losing their AAA rating and downgraded to AA+ which is only one notch. The EUR/USD which was rallying after recovering the lower trendline of its downward channel reverses hard more than 230 pips and hits new lows for the year.New longs buying the technical breakout got caught and hammered ... -
Dear Subscribers:Markets remain firm and now the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrrials and the Russell 2000 are trading their october highs. However the NASDAQ Composite, NYSE Composite Index or Emerging markets are below this level. This is an overall negative divergence in the market as the new highs are not being confirmed by most indexes. We are observing some negative divergences in the indexes that are making new highs.For example the S&P 500 has a lagging Advance/Decline line and Mclellan Summation Index. Both of these breadth indicators are below the October highs. Also sentiment in the option market is pretty ... -
Dear Subscribers:Markets remain trading near their october '11 highs but are losing some momentum and unable to gain traction over this resistance.Friday, despite better a better than expected non-farm payroll, we couldn't take out October highs in most major indices. Also the EUR/USD remains very weak and trading below 1.30. A weak Euro and strong dollar is usually a bad combination for stocks and other assets.Leading stocks remain relatively strong and we are entering a generally bullish time of the year which is earnings season which is a positive.However, until we get a coordinated breakout on the important indices I ... -
Dear Subscribers:Market continues to digest the gains produced by Tuesday's gap up.Today focus got centered once again in Europe as equity markets in the old continent slide due to worries related to bank capitalization and mixed French Bond auction where yields rose.The EUR/USD tanks more than 150 pips and trades at a 15 month low. The Dollar Index rallies and is trying to break out, hitting resistance at 22.60 in the UUP. Normally you would think that with this news the market would be tanking over 2% as it had occured before in similar occasions. Not this time. Markets have held very ... -
Yesterday's early weakness was erased with a strong afternoon rally that led world markets to close near their highs.As mentioned in yesterday's update, the market uptrend remains in place but is pressured by some short term overbought conditions and all the political and macro distorsion coming out from Europe.Markets remain sensible to headlines related to Europe. This creates a choppy and volatile trading environment.Today, the market started the american session with strength after selling off and then bouncing during the futures markets.This strength however was erased when Italy approves the budget put forward by prime minister Silvio Berlusconi was approved ...
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I’M VICTOR RIESCO
I’m a financial analyst and professional investor from Santiago, Chile. I’m the owner of Global Trader, a brokerage and trading .
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