Global Trading Blog
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Dear Subscribers:Today the market is bouncing from the oversold conditions we mentioned on yesterday's update.Most major US indices hit their lower bollinger band at 2 standard deviations and their RSI marked short term oversold readings. We are also seeing a positive divergence here.In an uptrend we can expect a reflexive bounce from conditions like this.However we are facing resistance once again here in the S&P 500 and in the Nasdaq Composite, the 50 day moving average. Macro data gave a hand today with a very positive reading in the Unemployment Claims which has reached its lowest level since February of ... -
Yesterday I read a couple of blogs about copper from two respected traders/analysts.Peter Brandt is bearish on the Red Metal while JC Parets from All Star Chartsis bullish on copper. Based on my analysis and looking at the charts of copper and the stock markets of the two biggest copper producers in the world, Chile and Peru, my opinion is that technically copper seems to be set up to move higher.Let's start with the chart of copper. It seems to be forming a symmetrical triangle with price currently trading over its 20-50-150 day moving averages. Volume has been the highest on ... -
Dear Subscribers:Equities open weaker amid "China concerns" fearing a larger than expected slow down.Steel production is slowing according to BHP Billiton and China raised fuel prices by the most in two years.The China ETF (FXI) gaps down today below its 200 day moving average. Weakness is seen in commodities, emerging markets, miners and precious metals. Yesterday we got some positive action in the US indices with good gains in the Nasdaq Composite and especially with the Russell 2000 which finally broke out from its consolidation/resistance pattern to new highs.The Dow Jones Transports couldn't manage to breakout from resistance.Today the Russell ... -
Dear Subscribers:For the moment, the winning streak in the market is being halted at resistance.The market has not been able to breach the 1350 resistance area from its overbought conditions.Today news from Europe are the excuse to sell. Bailout money to Greece was delayed until next week after euro-zone finance ministers demanded the country's parliament first approve another round of deep cutbacks. Copper falls over 2% and retests its 200 day moving average. Losses in copper show risk aversion. For the moment, everything is going as expected. I have warned about this pullback during this week and we have positioned ... -
Dear Subscribers:Today the market gaps fueled by higher than expected growth in Chinese GDP. Emerging markets, commodities and Brazil lead the rally today on these news.Also today we got a positive Spanish bond auction. The market has completely ignored the S&P downgrades on France, Austria and the ESFS bailout fund. I think is a positive that the market stops paying attention to this rating agencies which have shown during the last 5 years or so to be most of the time wrong and late in ther risk classifications. The market has given up a big part of its gap up ... -
Dear Subscribers:It had been a while since we had a complete miss in US macro data. Both Retail Sales and Unemployment claims came under expectations.Retail Sales only increased 0.1% in December while 0.3% was expected. Unemployment Claims also came in higher than expected with a reading of 399K vs 373K that was concensus. Market until just some minutes was flat to barely positive due a positve bond auction in Europe in which 10 year yields of Spanish and Italian bond dropped.The EUR/USD is trying to recover the lower trendline of its downward channel. A close over 1.2810 will probably generate ... -
Dear Subscribers:Markets remain firm and now the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrrials and the Russell 2000 are trading their october highs. However the NASDAQ Composite, NYSE Composite Index or Emerging markets are below this level. This is an overall negative divergence in the market as the new highs are not being confirmed by most indexes. We are observing some negative divergences in the indexes that are making new highs.For example the S&P 500 has a lagging Advance/Decline line and Mclellan Summation Index. Both of these breadth indicators are below the October highs. Also sentiment in the option market is pretty ... -
Dear Subscribers:Market opens sharply higher today and its hitting resistance in its 50 day moving average for the S&P 500.The market has been trading in a choppy downtrend since it hit its December high and had closed lower than its opening range during 6 days in a row. As usual, dissapointing comments coming from the European Union or European Central Bank has dominated trading and dragged the market lower despite continued better than expected macro data from the US.For the moment we have not seen the sesaonal bullish bias of year end except for the powerful bounce from the end ... -
Dear Subscribers: Contrary to the favorable stats that we had shown yesterday, the S&P 500 continued to drop down and got near the level were we have our stop (126.80) for our long trade on the SPY. Since the SPY exists, it was the first time that five consecutive down days into a wednesday results in a down day. 11 out 11 times before the market had rallied yesterday with average gain of 1.3%. The same stats, however, show that 8 of 11 times when this type of selling has occured, the S&P 500 ends the week positive. These statistics ... -
The last couple of days remind us of the sometimes, bi-polar character that financial markets have. Last tuesday the market closed at the highs with good breadth and volume even though we had a dismal "trifecta" of macro data. During the last or so we have constantly observed dissapointing data regarding consumer spending, GDP, employment and manufacturing activity. Despite that, the market has been relatively flat and started to bounce last week after reaching a general oversold condition. Based on this trend of negative macro data I wrote on yesterday's update that I didn't expect a positive number from the ADP ... -
This is an in depth analysis of the effects of Quantitative Easing in the economy and asset markets plus what will happen once the FED stops using this monetary tool in June 30th, 2011. This article was published in Gurufocus.com and received great ratings and was selected as "Editor's Pick". Read the article here: The Effects of Quantitative Easing
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I’M VICTOR RIESCO
I’m a financial analyst and professional investor from Santiago, Chile. I’m the owner of Global Trader, a brokerage and trading .
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